For those who are following events in Somalia one of the big questions right now is, will Kenya intervene militarily in the conflict? Since early this month, the government of Sharif Ahmed has been calling on the international community, particularly Somalia's neighbours, to come to its aid. Ethiopia plans to act as soon as it has an international mandate, and some believe it has already sent troops across the border. Kenya has been making noises about intervening militarily but so far has not made a decisive move. What next?
Throughout the past few decades, Kenya has been involved in a range of peacekeeping activities. It's contributed both to United Nations (UN) missions and Commonwealth operations. Kenyan peacekeepers have served both inside Africa - in Burundi, Congo, Namibia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, and elsewhere - and around the world. Today, the largest contingent of Kenyan peacekeepers is in Southern Sudan (a region of strategic interest to Kenya, as I have recently
discussed.) So far, however, Kenya has not deployed peacekeepers to the African Union (AU) mission in Somalia, which is currently comprised of soldiers from Burundi and Uganda.
Many analysts have argued that nations tend to participate in peacekeeping operations only when it is in their interests to do so. Those interests may be economic or strategic. Sometimes the benefit may take the form of prestige or respect as a responsible and active international player. Humanitarian concerns do enter the equation, of course, but generally only when the costs and risks of becoming involved are relatively low. Understandably, then, there are many countries that don't want to go near Somalia. Some have sent naval forces to defend maritime interests from piracy, or have supported the efforts of Ethiopia and the AU on land. Overall, though, none have been inclined to get involved in a peacekeeping - or "peace enforcement" - mission.
So will Kenya take that step now?
Ministers in the Kenyan government have stated on a number of occasions recently that an unstable Somalia is an unacceptable threat to Kenya's national security. The number of refugees gathering at the border may be seen as dangerous, too. But this kind of talk has been going on for months now and still there has been no decisive action. Meanwhile, Al Shabaab (the Islamist group I've discussed a few times) is threatening to stage attacks in Nairobi if Kenya deploys troops in Somalia. I can only imagine how the Kenyan public, scarred by the terrorist attacks of 1998, feels about that. Whether Al Shabaab has the capability to carry out its threats is uncertain. Either way, a Kenyan politician who commits to intervention in Somalia will be taking a huge political risk.
To be honest, I'm not sure what will happen next. Kenya certainly has good reason to consider intervention in Somalia, at least in terms of strategic interests (regional security) and humanitarian need. But there are risks: no one has been able to defeat the Islamist insurgency yet - indeed it seems to be getting stronger - and the threat of terrorist attacks against Nairobi must be taken seriously. The Kenyan government says it cannot afford to do nothing. Yet there's a chance that doing something will only inflame the conflict, as if it could get any worse. So while Kenya's decision-makers weigh up their options, the killing continues and the refugees continue to flow. And the world, with a few exceptions, simply looks on.
