Refugee debate (2009 remix), or "Opinions are like bums..."

One half of the Aussie commentariat has gone into groupthink mode concerning the issue of asylum seekers attempting to reach Australia by boat. The meme is that asylum seekers are "illegals" - that is, criminals - who are trying to enter Australia because the Labor gumint is a soft touch. An example of this groupthinkery came yesterday when every man and his blog was quoting Greg Sheridan's opinion on the matter.

Sheridan - who makes no secret of his political leanings - is entitled to his opinion, as predictable as it may be. His column rolled out all of the usual arguments, including the suggestion that recent arrivals from Sri Lanka are not legitimate refugees.

However, being a News Ltd columnist on foreign policy with connections within the Liberal party does not make one an expert on the issues of border protection or international refugee flows. There are some experts out there, though, and it would be helpful if our media (and the blogging echo chamber) would paid them a little attention.

For instance, here is what an intelligence analyst who works in the area of border protection had to say about the current situation when someone bothered to ask:

"The idea that the change to policy has caused this surge is erroneous.

"The change has been minimal. Some smugglers have been marketing it as a softer approach, but the extent to which that has reduced any deterrent factor is questionable.

"You do need to consider the push factors, especially the war in Sri Lanka and ongoing conflict in places like Afghanistan."

Sheridan, bloggers, and the Liberal party themselves - "Teh boat people might be terrorists!!1!" - are in the business of finding "facts" that suit their own predetermined line of thinking. Intelligence analysts are not - they're job is to seek all available information, evaluate it, analyse it, and reach reasonable and objective conclusions. I know whose opinion I will value more.